Luxury Bunny Rates and Explanation

The true test on how deep my pockets are

Intro

The Rupee Gacha skin is a new system that has been introduced this patch. It involves a step up system where you have to pull more to get increased odds of getting her, until it is guaranteed at the 10th pull. However the amount of tickets also increase per pull, maxing out at around 60$.

Estimated Rates Per Step

Since the odds increase depending on what you get (Albeit slightly), the numbers shown below will differ between everyone, but is very much around the same ballpark anyways.

Rupee skin starts dropping at the 5th step

More Information

When you’re planning to get the Rupee skin, don’t chance it, commit fully and make sure you have enough funds for all the steps as you are unlikely to get it before then. This reddit comment Explains it rather well

tl;dr: Approximately 81.18% 80.42% of players will need all ten draws, or $60, to get Rupee’s skin.

Edit: Needed to revise the math because you can get her on the 5th draw, not 6th draw

In game under “Probability Info”: Press Right to see the Basic Rate

  • 0.05% chance to get Rupee, so 1 out of 2000 chance to get her.
  • Let’s say there are 2000 marbles, the 1 golden marble is Rupee.
  • But you can’t get Rupee until the 5th draw (also can’t get 2nd place prizes til 2nd draw).
  • Each draw is $10/6 = $1.67 assuming you only buy the 6 tickets for $9.99 deal.
  • Since there are 2000 marbles, each probability will be multiplied by 2000, ie, 50% chance = 1000 marbles.

Assumptions Made: You always pull the most probable item from the gacha. Pulling low chance prizes actually reduces your chance of getting Rupee earlier.

Cost per draw:

Free, 1, 1, 2, 4, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6 = 36 tickets total if you get Rupee on last draw = $60

Chance for Rupee

Draw 1 (Free):

Chance for Rupee: 0%

“Ultra Boost Module x20” pulled = 31.35% chance = 627 marbles pulled

Marbles Remaining: 2000 – 627 = 1373

Draw 2 (1 ticket = $1.67; Total Spent = $1.67)

Chance for Rupee: 0%

“Growth Set: 1H x4” pulled = 31.35% chance = 627 marbles pulled

Marbles Remaining: 746

Draw 3 (1 ticket = $1.67; Total Spent = $3.34)

Chance for Rupee: 0%

“Burst Manual I x22” Pulled = 16.0% chance = 320 marbles pulled

Marbles Remaining: 426

Draw 4 (2 tickets = $3.34; Total Spent = $6.68)

Chance for Rupee: 0%

“Central Government Supply Chest I x14” = 16.0% chance = 320 marbles pulled

Marbles Remaining: 106

Draw 5 (4 tickets = $6.68; Total Spent = $13.36)

Chance for Rupee: 1/106 = 0.943%

“Darling for a Day x5” Pulled = 1.75% chance = 35 marbles

Marbles Remaining: 71

Draw 6 (4 tickets = $6.68; Total Spent = $20.04)

Chance for Rupee: 1/71 marbles = 1.4%

“Skill Manual I x90” Pulled = 1.55% chance = 31 marbles

Marbles Remaining: 40

Draw 7 (6 tickets = $9.99; Total Spent = $30.03)

Chance for Rupee: 1/40 marbles = 2.5%

“Custom Module x2 Pulled” = 1.0% chance = 20 marbles

Marbles Remaining: 20

Draw 8 (6 tickets = $9.99; Total Spent = $40.02)

“Manufacturer Arms x200” pulled = 0.55% chance = 11 marbles

Chance for Rupee: 1/20 marbles = 5% chance

Marbles Remaining: 9

Draw 9 (6 tickets = $9.99; Total Spent = $50.01)

Chance for Rupee: 1/9 marbles = 11.11% chance

“Advanced Recruit Voucher x10” Pulled = 0.40% chance = 8 marbles

Marbles Remaining: 1

Draw 10 (6 tickets = $9.99; Total Spent = $60.00)

Chance for Rupee: 1/1 marbles = 100%

Rupee skin pulled!

Chance to need all 10 draws for Rupee

Let’s calculate the chances that you’ll need all ten draws to get Rupee’s skin.

Draw 5: 0.94% = 99.06% chance to not get

Draw 6: 1.4% = 98.6% chance not to get

Draw 7: 2.5% chance = 97.5% chance not to get

Draw 8: 5% chance = 95% chance not to get

Draw 9: 11.11% chance = 88.89% chance not to get

Total chance to need 10 draws: 0.9906 x 0.986 x 0.975 x 0.95 x 0.8889 = 81.18% 80.42% chance to need all 10 draws

Conclusion

Approximately 81.18% 80.42% of players will need all 10 draws, which means spending $60 to get Rupee’s skin. The chances are slightly worse because of the assumptions I made. Please gamble responsibly!

https://www.reddit.com/r/NikkeMobile/comments/13kxtxa/approximately_8118_of_players_will_spend_60_to/

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17 Comments

  1. Easily the worst event in terms of spending. 60 Bucks for one skin? What the hell. I would say to boycott this, but coomers and whales are going to buy this skin regardless. And why the hell does it say “1th”????? its fucking 1st, 2nd, 3rd.

    • I think a lot of people will misunderstand it too. Until I read some more I understand that you got the rupee skin after 5 pulls, not that it just unlocks after 5. 5 pulls is $20 which is somewhat more reasonable than $60 with all the extra stuff you would get as well. $60 is just absurd. This game is really just going after coomer whales.

      • The sad thing is I used to be a whale, but when they started running multiple BP at the same time, I got concerned, now we’re just doing straight up $60 gacha rolls for a skin. SO glad I stopped whaling when I did. They do this again, I’m just gonna quit. Mass Effect Trilogy Remaster is on sale rn for $20

    • >60 Bucks for one skin?
      to be fair its $60 for a skin plus some resources
      not defending it either way, its still a fair chunk of money for consumable pixels and anime titties, would be better to get tickets for missions and payment just being an option rather than a requirement

  4. I began this believing it was fair pull for each ticket. But of course, the costume was the very last win. If they rigged this, it is illegal in the EU. Don’t do this again, or there may be legal consequences in Europe.

    As for my self, I won’t tip my toes into tempting waters again. That said, it is this style of costume that would be popular. But please make it available for a more fair price.

  5. This is Gacha gamble thing for a skin and some resources is not cool at all and not worth it in my opinion.

  7. I played the Street Fighter 6 beta and was so impressed that I went and preordered it. The value proposition here is virtually nonexistent. I wonder if this qualifies as irrational anger, I’ve been angry about it since the patch dropped. After a legendary dry spell with pulls and interceptions, the thought of more gambling at these ludicrous price points are putting me off this game entirely. Idk how you guys put up with gacha games as a genre. So little substance for the money spent. Maybe I just stumbled into a hobby of the rich n famous by mistake.

  9. the custom modules looks juicy, i dont care about the bunny stuff, i rather go look r18 of ruppe in another place.

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