Gacha Costume: Drake – Villain Racer

Intro

The Drake Gacha skin is a system that involves a step up system where you have to pull more to get increased odds of getting her, until it is guaranteed at the 10th pull. However the amount of tickets also increase per pull, maxing out at around 60$.

Skin Showcase

More Information

This skin gacha system works similar to Rupee’s gacha skin, which includes the rates. A reddit post explains how the rates for acquiring the skin works.

This was written at the time of Rupee’s gacha skin, but it should also very much apply to Drake’s skin as well.

Don’t try to chance it if you’re going for the skin. Prepare all your funds and go all in or you’d most likely be solely disappointed.

tl;dr: Approximately 81.18% 80.42% of players will need all ten draws, or $60, to get Rupee’s skin.

Edit: Needed to revise the math because you can get her on the 5th draw, not 6th draw

In game under “Probability Info”: Press Right to see the Basic Rate

• 0.05% chance to get Rupee, so 1 out of 2000 chance to get her.
• Let’s say there are 2000 marbles, the 1 golden marble is Rupee.
• But you can’t get Rupee until the 5th draw (also can’t get 2nd place prizes til 2nd draw).
• Each draw is $10/6 = $1.67 assuming you only buy the 6 tickets for $9.99 deal.
• Since there are 2000 marbles, each probability will be multiplied by 2000, ie, 50% chance = 1000 marbles.

Assumptions Made: You always pull the most probable item from the gacha. Pulling low chance prizes actually reduces your chance of getting Rupee earlier.

Cost per draw:

Free, 1, 1, 2, 4, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6 = 36 tickets total if you get Rupee on last draw = $60

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Chance for Rupee

Draw 1 (Free):

Chance for Rupee: 0%

“Ultra Boost Module x20” pulled = 31.35% chance = 627 marbles pulled

Marbles Remaining: 2000 – 627 = 1373

Draw 2 (1 ticket = $1.67; Total Spent = $1.67)

Chance for Rupee: 0%

“Growth Set: 1H x4” pulled = 31.35% chance = 627 marbles pulled

Marbles Remaining: 746

Draw 3 (1 ticket = $1.67; Total Spent = $3.34)

Chance for Rupee: 0%

“Burst Manual I x22” Pulled = 16.0% chance = 320 marbles pulled

Marbles Remaining: 426

Draw 4 (2 tickets = $3.34; Total Spent = $6.68)

Chance for Rupee: 0%

“Central Government Supply Chest I x14” = 16.0% chance = 320 marbles pulled

Marbles Remaining: 106

Draw 5 (4 tickets = $6.68; Total Spent = $13.36)

Chance for Rupee: 1/106 = 0.943%

“Darling for a Day x5” Pulled = 1.75% chance = 35 marbles

Marbles Remaining: 71

Draw 6 (4 tickets = $6.68; Total Spent = $20.04)

Chance for Rupee: 1/71 marbles = 1.4%

“Skill Manual I x90” Pulled = 1.55% chance = 31 marbles

Marbles Remaining: 40

Draw 7 (6 tickets = $9.99; Total Spent = $30.03)

Chance for Rupee: 1/40 marbles = 2.5%

“Custom Module x2 Pulled” = 1.0% chance = 20 marbles

Marbles Remaining: 20

Draw 8 (6 tickets = $9.99; Total Spent = $40.02)

“Manufacturer Arms x200” pulled = 0.55% chance = 11 marbles

Chance for Rupee: 1/20 marbles = 5% chance

Marbles Remaining: 9

Draw 9 (6 tickets = $9.99; Total Spent = $50.01)

Chance for Rupee: 1/9 marbles = 11.11% chance

“Advanced Recruit Voucher x10” Pulled = 0.40% chance = 8 marbles

Marbles Remaining: 1

Draw 10 (6 tickets = $9.99; Total Spent = $60.00)

Chance for Rupee: 1/1 marbles = 100%

Rupee skin pulled!

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Chance to need all 10 draws for Rupee

Let’s calculate the chances that you’ll need all ten draws to get Rupee’s skin.

Draw 5: 0.94% = 99.06% chance to not get

Draw 6: 1.4% = 98.6% chance not to get

Draw 7: 2.5% chance = 97.5% chance not to get

Draw 8: 5% chance = 95% chance not to get

Draw 9: 11.11% chance = 88.89% chance not to get

Total chance to need 10 draws: 0.9906 x 0.986 x 0.975 x 0.95 x 0.8889 = 81.18% 80.42% chance to need all 10 draws

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Conclusion

Approximately 81.18% 80.42% of players will need all 10 draws, which means spending $60 to get Rupee’s skin. The chances are slightly worse because of the assumptions I made. Please gamble responsibly!

https://www.reddit.com/r/NikkeMobile/comments/13kxtxa/approximately_8118_of_players_will_spend_60_to/